\uff08\u6cb3\u518512\u65e5\u8baf\uff09\u8d8a\u5171\u603b\u4e66\u8bb0\u82cf\u6797\u8bbf\u95ee\u671d\u9c9c\u5e76\u4f1a\u89c1\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\uff0c\u4e3a\u8d8a\u535717\u5e74\u6765\u9996\u4f4d\u51fa\u8bbf\u5e73\u58e4\u7684\u5143\u9996\u3002\u5b66\u8005\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u91c7\u201c\u52a1\u5b9e\u5bf9\u51b2\u201d\u5916\u4ea4\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u76fc\u589e\u52a0\u5916\u4ea4\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002\u8bbf\u7a0b\u4f20\u9012\u6cb3\u5185\u4e0d\u88ab\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u66f4\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u201c\u653f\u6cbb\u536b\u661f\u201d\u7684\u8baf\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u8ba9\u65e5\u97e9\u5b89\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e2d\u592e\u793e\u5468\u65e5\u62a5\u5bfc\uff0c\u82cf\u6797\u4eca\u5e748\u6708\u8bbf\u95ee\u97e9\u56fd\u5e76\u4f1a\u89c1\u603b\u7edf\u674e\u5728\u660e\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\u4e8e9\u65e5\u81f311\u65e5\u51fa\u8bbf\u671d\u9c9c\uff0c\u4f1a\u89c1\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\uff0c\u662f\u8fd120\u5e74\u6765\u8d8a\u5357\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u8bbf\u5e73\u58e4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53cc\u65b9\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u7b7e\u7f72\u56fd\u9632\u3001\u6587\u5316\u3001\u536b\u751f\u3001\u6c11\u822a\u3001\u53f8\u6cd5\u534f\u52a9\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e0e\u907f\u514d\u53cc\u91cd\u8bfe\u7a0e\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u5408\u4f5c\u534f\u5b9a\u3002\u622a\u81f3\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u5e76\u65e0\u8d38\u6613\u5f80\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4eca\u5e74\u9002\u9022\u4e24\u56fd\u5efa\u4ea475\u5468\u5e74\uff0c\u82cf\u6797\u6b64\u6b21\u53d7\u9080\u53c2\u52a0\u671d\u9c9c\u52b3\u52a8\u515a\u6210\u7acb80\u5468\u5e74\u5e86\u795d\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u8bc4\u8bba\u79f0\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7f55\u89c1\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u4e0e\u97e9\u671d\u5143\u9996\u4ea4\u597d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u6b64\u8d9f\u8bbf\u95ee\u5438\u5f15\u56fd\u9645\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\u76ee\u5149\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6b27\u6d32\u82f1\u6587\u65b0\u95fb\u7f51\u7ad9Modern Diplomacy\u572810\u65e5\u4e00\u7bc7\u5206\u6790\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u56e0\u56fd\u9645\u5236\u88c1\u800c\u4e0e\u5e73\u58e4\u4fdd\u6301\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u5374\u4e3b\u52a8\u62dc\u8bbf\u671d\u9c9c\u9ad8\u5c42\uff0c\u8fd9\u7edd\u975e\u6b63\u5e38\u5916\u4ea4\u4e3e\u52a8\uff0c\u201c\u53ea\u80fd\u88ab\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u6218\u7565\u4e3e\u63aa\u201d\u3002\u900f\u8fc7\u6b64\u4e3e\uff0c\u6cb3\u5185\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u6743\u529b\u7ade\u9010\u91cd\u5851\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5411\u4e3b\u8981\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f20\u9012\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u53d1\u51fa\u8baf\u53f7\uff0c\u201c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5de6\u53f3\u6cb3\u5185\u6574\u4e2a\u5916\u4ea4\u7a7a\u95f4\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7834\u574f\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7684\u671d\u9c9c\u6838\u6b66\u51b3\u8bae\u6848\u3002\u4e0e\u5927\u56fd\u4fdd\u6301\u8db3\u591f\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u4ee5\u7ef4\u62a4\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\u548c\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u91ca\u653e\u7684\u8baf\u606f\u8f83\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u3002\u671d\u9c9c\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u8d8a\u5357\u7686\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\u6765\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u7684\u5171\u4eab\u548c\u53cb\u8c0a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u7684\u662f\u60f3\u544a\u8bc9\u5317\u4eac\uff0c\u201c\u8d8a\u5357\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u2018\u653f\u6cbb\u536b\u661f\u2019\u201d\u3002\u8d8a\u5357\u6e34\u671b\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u5708\u5185\u6709\u6240\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u900f\u8fc7\u515a\u9645\u7ba1\u9053\u7ef4\u6301\u53cb\u597d\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u6709\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8bbf\u95ee\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u8d8a\u5357\u5411\u5317\u4eac\u53d1\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6218\u7565\u5e73\u8861\u201d\u8baf\u53f7\u3002\u6709\u9274\u4e8e\u8d8a\u3001\u4e2d\u7684\u6d77\u4e0a\u9886\u571f\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u201c\u8d8a\u5357\u6b63\u5c55\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u5916\u4ea4\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e0d\u5c40\u9650\u4e8e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u62d3\u5c55\u81f3\u4e1c\u5317\u4e9a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u79c0\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u4e5f\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u6709\u610f\u613f\u53d1\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u58f0\u97f3\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7531\u4e8e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e0e\u671d\u9c9c\u5173\u7cfb\u65e5\u76ca\u7d27\u5bc6\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u6000\u7591\u8d8a\u5357\u5916\u4ea4\u6b63\u504f\u5411\u4fc4\u56fd\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\u97e9\u56fd\u56fd\u6c11\u5927\u5b66\uff08Kookmin University\uff09\u6559\u6388\u5170\u79d1\u592b\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u8d8a\u5357\u4fdd\u6301\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u88ab\u5212\u5165\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u6cbb\u519b\u4e8b\u540c\u76df\u3002\u8d8a\u671d\u5408\u4f5c\u4e3b\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u53cb\u8c0a\u548c\u653f\u515a\u4ea4\u6d41\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e0e\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8f68\u9053\u65e0\u5173\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u671d\u9c9c\u5411\u6765\u5bf9\u97e9\u56fd\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u5e26\u6765\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u800c\u97e9\u3001\u65e5\u662f\u8d8a\u5357\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7ecf\u8d38\u652f\u67f1\u3002\u97e9\u56fd\u662f\u8d8a\u5357\u6700\u5927\u5916\u56fd\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff1b\u82cf\u6797\u65e5\u524d\u521a\u4e0e\u9996\u5c14\u7b7e\u7f722\u4ebf5000\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u534f\u8bae\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u5219\u662f\u53cc\u8fb9\u5b98\u65b9\u53d1\u5c55\u63f4\u52a9\uff08ODA\uff09\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u6e90\u56fd\uff0c\u5bf9\u8d8a\u5357\u57fa\u7840\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u51fa\u8bbf\u671d\u9c9c\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u65e5\u3001\u97e9\u5b89\u5fc3\uff0c\u201c\u6cb3\u5185\u5e0c\u671b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e0e\u5e73\u58e4\u7684\u53cb\u597d\u5173\u7cfb\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u635f\u5bb3\u4e0e\u9996\u5c14\u548c\u4e1c\u4eac\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u6216\u5408\u4f5c\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u53ef\u5f00\u8f9f\u4e00\u4e2a\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u7ba1\u9053\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7f13\u89e3\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6fb3\u6d32\u667a\u5e93\u201c\u6d1b\u4f0a\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d\uff08Lowy Institute\uff09\u7f51\u7ad9The Interpreter\u4e5f\u4e8e8\u65e5\u4ee5\u300a\u8d8a\u5357\u6b63\u5728\u5411\u671d\u9c9c\u793a\u597d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ecd\u8d62\u5f97\u897f\u65b9\u670b\u53cb\u300b\u4e3a\u6807\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u82cf\u6797\u51fa\u8bbf\u3002\u64b0\u7a3f\u8005\u540c\u6837\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5e73\u58e4\u7ee7\u7eed\u56de\u907f\u4e0e\u9996\u5c14\u7684\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u201c\u6cb3\u5185\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5916\u4ea4\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u7a7f\u68ad\u5916\u4ea4\u89d2\u8272\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6709\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u5c06\u8d8a\u5357\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u6a21\u5f0f\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u52a1\u5b9e\u5bf9\u51b2\u201d\uff08pragmatic hedging\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u80fd\u591f\u4e0e\u53ef\u80fd\u4e92\u76f8\u654c\u5bf9\u7684\u6709\u5173\u65b9\u4fdd\u6301\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u826f\u597d\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u53c8\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4efb\u4f55\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n
Modern Diplomacy\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u900f\u8fc7\u8bbf\u95ee\u5e73\u58e4\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u5c06\u653f\u515a\u5916\u4ea4\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5efa\u7acb\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u4e0e\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5916\u4ea4\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\uff08\u6cb3\u518512\u65e5\u8baf\uff09\u8d8a\u5171\u603b\u4e66\u8bb0\u82cf\u6797\u8bbf\u95ee\u671d\u9c9c\u5e76\u4f1a\u89c1\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\uff0c\u4e3a\u8d8a\u535717\u5e74\u6765\u9996\u4f4d\u51fa\u8bbf\u5e73\u58e4\u7684\u5143\u9996\u3002\u5b66\u8005\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\u91c7\u201c\u52a1\u5b9e\u5bf9\u51b2\u201d\u5916\u4ea4\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u76fc\u589e\u52a0\u5916\u4ea4\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002\u8bbf\u7a0b\u4f20\u9012\u6cb3\u5185\u4e0d\u88ab\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u66f4\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u201c\u653f\u6cbb\u536b\u661f\u201d\u7684\u8baf\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u8c03\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u8ba9\u65e5\u97e9\u5b89\u5fc3\u3002 \u53f0\u6e7e\u4e2d\u592e\u793e\u5468\u65e5\u62a5\u5bfc\uff0c\u82cf\u6797\u4eca\u5e748\u6708\u8bbf\u95ee\u97e9\u56fd\u5e76\u4f1a\u89c1\u603b\u7edf\u674e\u5728\u660e\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\u4e8e9\u65e5\u81f311\u65e5\u51fa\u8bbf\u671d\u9c9c\uff0c\u4f1a\u89c1\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\uff0c\u662f\u8fd120\u5e74\u6765\u8d8a\u5357\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u8bbf\u5e73\u58e4\u3002 \u53cc\u65b9\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u7b7e\u7f72\u56fd\u9632\u3001\u6587\u5316\u3001\u536b\u751f\u3001\u6c11\u822a\u3001\u53f8\u6cd5\u534f\u52a9\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e0e\u907f\u514d\u53cc\u91cd\u8bfe\u7a0e\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u53cc\u8fb9\u5408\u4f5c\u534f\u5b9a\u3002\u622a\u81f3\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u5e76\u65e0\u8d38\u6613\u5f80\u6765\u3002 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